Who The Stats Say Will Be The Next World Championship Challenger

As eight of the world’s very best grandmasters—GMs Fabiano Caruana, Hikaru Nakamura, Alireza Firouzja, Ian Nepomniachtchi, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, Gukesh Dommaraju, Vidit Gujrathi, and Nijat Abasov—descend on Toronto, Canada for the 2024 Candidates Tournament, only one can emerge with the rights to face Magnus Carlsen GM Ding Liren in the 2024 FIDE World Championship.

But who will it be? That’s the question we’re looking at today. Below, you can see the odds that each of these stars takes one step closer to the glory of becoming a world champion, and read on to find out why. Many thanks to Tai Pruce-Zimmerman (@chessnumbers) for running the numbers!

In addition to the stats, four grandmasters have graciously offered their thoughts on the favorites, underdogs, and everyone in between: commentators extraordinaire GM David Howell and GM Robert Hess, 12th women’s world champion GM Alexandra Kosteniuk, and Chess.com resident GM Rafael Leitao. Our thanks to all of these brilliant players!

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